Who should I draft in a keeper league?

I would probably go with Tulowitzki, Hill, or Phillips. You'll most likely get by not drafting Votto or Morneau first round, because people probably have a first baseman already when by keeping them. But good offensive shortstops and second basemen are pretty hard to find. Hill and Phillips have probably reached their peak in stats, but you probably aren't going to decide on a second baseman to keep anyways. After first round, that's when I would go with Morneau, Votto, Youkilis or Morales (and any other good offensive first baseman you can find). I would still pick Morneau before Votto in your league, because Votto's only younger by 2 years, and Morneau's in a much better lineup.